Capturing Preference Heterogeneity in Stated Choice Models: A Random Parameter Logit Model of the Demand for GM Food

Analyses of data from random utility models of choice data have typically used fixed parameter representations, with consumer heterogeneity introduced by including factors such as the age, gender etc of the respondent. However, there is a class of models that assume that the underlying parameters of the estimated model (and hence preferences) are different for each individual within the sample, and that choices can be explained by identifying the parameters of the distribution from which they are drawn. Such a random parameter model is applied to stated choice data from the UK, and the results compared with standard fixed parameter models. The results provide new evidence of preferences for various aspects of the UK food system, particularly in relation to GM food but other environmental and technical aspects also. Indications of how random parameter models might be developed further are discussed on the basis of these results.random parameter logit, choice modelling, GMOs, food safety, Food Consumption/Nutrition/Food Safety,

Soft networks for bridging the gap between research and practice: illuminative evaluation of CHAIN

Objectives To explore the process of knowledge exchange in an informal email network for evidence based health care, to illuminate the value of the service and its critical success factors, and to identify areas for improvement.Design Illuminative evaluationSetting Targeted email and networking service for UK healthcare practitioners and researchers.Participants 2800 members of a networking service.Main outcome measures Tracking of email messages, interviews with core staff, and a qualitative analysis of messages, postings from focus groups, and invited and unsolicited feedback to the service.Results The informal email network helped to bridge the gap between research and practice by serving as a rich source of information, providing access to members' experiences, suggestions, and ideas, facilitating cross boundary collaboration, and enabling participation in networking at a variety of levels. Ad hoc groupings and communities of practice emerged spontaneously as members discovered common areas of interest.Conclusion This study illuminated how knowledge for evidence based health care can be targeted, personalised, and made meaningful through informal social processes. Critical success factors include a broad based membership from both the research and service communities; a loose and fluid network structure; fight targeting of messages based on members' interests; the presence of a strong network identity and culture of reciprocity; and the opportunity for new members to learn through passive participation

Precaution and Protectionism: GM Food and the WTO

The dispute between the US and EU over GM foods at the WTO is examined in terms of the issues it raises about protectionism and environmental protection and precaution. The issue of whether GM, GM Derived and Non-GM foods are equivalent to each other is examined using data from a national choice modelling study in the UK. These categories of food are critical since they underpin the EU's new food labelling regime which it hoped would defuse the WTO dispute. The results are analysed using a Bayesian mixed logit model which allows greater flexibility in the modelling of preference distributions. This is particularly crucial where, as in this case, bi-modal distributions are identified with some indifferent or mildly averse to GM foodtypes while others are strongly averse. A strong finding of the analysis is that people treat ingredients derived from GM crops (but free from altered DNA) as equivalent to GM ingredients. This supports a labelling regime based on process rather than simply product and suggests considerable consumer benefits from the EU's new GM labelling regime.GM food, mixed logit, WTP, Bayesian, WTO, International Relations/Trade, C11, C24, C25, D12, Q18,

Precaution and Protectionism: 'Likeness' and GM Food at the WTO

The dispute between the US and EU over GM foods at the WTO is examined in terms of the issues it raises about protectionism, environmental protection and precaution. The issue of whether GM, GM Derived and Non-GM foods are equivalent to each other is examined using data from a national choice modelling study in the UK. These categories of food are critical since they underpin the EU's new food labelling regime which it hoped would defuse the WTO dispute. The results are analysed using a Bayesian mixed logit model which allows greater flexibility in the modelling of preference distributions than that allowed through classical estimation. The Bayesian approach allows the use of censored normal and Johnson's SB distributions which can accommodate a bounded distribution with a probability mass point at zero (i.e. indifference). This is particularly important where, as in the case of GM food, we may expect some to be indifferent to the food whilst others dislike it, some strongly so. The results indicate bi-modal distributions regarding GM foodtypes, with some indifferent or mildly averse to GM foodtypes and others are strongly averse. A strong finding of the analysis is that most people treat ingredients derived from GM crops (but free from altered DNA) as equivalent to GM ingredients. This supports a labelling regime based on process rather than simply product and suggests considerable consumer benefits from the EU's new GM labelling regime.GM food, mixed logit, WTP, Bayesian, WTO, International Relations/Trade, Q51, Q55, Q56, Q58,

The cosmic evolution of radio-AGN feedback to z=1

This paper presents the first measurement of the radio luminosity function of 'jet-mode' (radiatively-inefficient) radio-AGN out to z=1, in order to investigate the cosmic evolution of radio-AGN feedback. Eight radio source samples are combined to produce a catalogue of 211 radio-loud AGN with 0.5<z<1.0, which are spectroscopically classified into jet-mode and radiative-mode (radiatively-efficient) AGN classes. Comparing with large samples of local radio-AGN from the Sloan Digital Sky Survey, the cosmic evolution of the radio luminosity function of each radio-AGN class is independently derived. Radiative-mode radio-AGN show an order of magnitude increase in space density out to z~1 at all luminosities, consistent with these AGN being fuelled by cold gas. In contrast, the space density of jet-mode radio-AGN decreases with increasing redshift at low radio luminosities (L_1.4 < 1e24 W/Hz) but increases at higher radio luminosities. Simple models are developed to explain the observed evolution. In the best-fitting models, the characteristic space density of jet-mode AGN declines with redshift in accordance with the declining space density of massive quiescent galaxies, which fuel them via cooling of gas in their hot haloes. A time delay of 1.5-2 Gyr may be present between the quenching of star formation and the onset of jet-mode radio-AGN activity. The behaviour at higher radio luminosities can be explained either by an increasing characteristic luminosity of jet-mode radio-AGN activity with redshift (roughly as (1+z) cubed) or if the jet-mode radio-AGN population also includes some contribution of cold-gas-fuelled sources seen at a time when their accretion rate was low. Higher redshifts measurements would distinguish between these possibilities.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRA

Cattle breeding in Northern Australia: Revealing how consumers react to new technologies

In Australia, Bos taurus cattle breeds produce high quality meat, superior in taste and tenderness characteristics. Nevertheless, these breeds do not thrive in the Northern Australian environment. Stem cell transplant techniques could improve northern beef cattle breeding programs by facilitating crossbreeding via natural service. Focus groups were used in this study to explore consumer reaction to reproduction technologies and the implications for buying intentions. Findings suggested that consumers may react negatively to unconventional breeding technologies but the degree of this aversion is contingent upon how the technology is described. These findings are relevant for preparation of choice modeling surveys.Non-market valuation, consumers, focus groups, new technologies, beef,

Cosmic downsizing of powerful radio galaxies to low radio luminosities

At bright radio powers ($P_{\rm 1.4 GHz} > 10^{25}$ W/Hz) the space density of the most powerful sources peaks at higher redshift than that of their weaker counterparts. This paper establishes whether this luminosity-dependent evolution persists for sources an order of magnitude fainter than those previously studied, by measuring the steep--spectrum radio luminosity function (RLF) across the range $10^{24} < P_{\rm 1.4 GHz} < 10^{28}$ W/Hz, out to high redshift. A grid-based modelling method is used, in which no assumptions are made about the RLF shape and high-redshift behaviour. The inputs to the model are the same as in Rigby et al. (2011): redshift distributions from radio source samples, together with source counts and determinations of the local luminosity function. However, to improve coverage of the radio power vs. redshift plane at the lowest radio powers, a new faint radio sample is introduced. This covers 0.8 sq. deg., in the Subaru/XMM-Newton Deep Field, to a 1.4 GHz flux density limit of $S_{\rm 1.4 GHz} \geq 100~\mu$Jy, with 99% redshift completeness. The modelling results show that the previously seen high-redshift declines in space density persist to $P_{\rm 1.4 GHz} < 10^{25}$ W/Hz. At $P_{\rm 1.4 GHz} > 10^{26}$ W/Hz the redshift of the peak space density increases with luminosity, whilst at lower radio luminosities the position of the peak remains constant within the uncertainties. This `cosmic downsizing' behaviour is found to be similar to that seen at optical wavelengths for quasars, and is interpreted as representing the transition from radiatively efficient to inefficient accretion modes in the steep-spectrum population. This conclusion is supported by constructing simple models for the space density evolution of these two different radio galaxy classes; these are able to successfully reproduce the observed variation in peak redshift.Comment: 7 pages, 6 figures; accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Kinetics of Ehrlich ascites tumor growth within millipore chambers in normal and immunized mice.

THE proliferation of malignant cells has been shown to depend not only on intrinsic neoplastic properties but also on environmental circumstances, in vivo (host) or in vitro (medium). In addition, a changing rate of growth in a continuing environment has been documented in tumor-bearing hosts and tissue culture situations. The kinetics of neoplastic cells (i.e. Ehrlich ascites tumor cells-EAT) have been studied with regard to cellular proliferation within cell-tight millipore chambers by Amos and Wakefield (1958) (among others), particularly concerning the growth rate of cells in normal mice and the rate of entry of iso-antibody into the chambers. The present investigations define the growth pattern of Ehrlich ascites tumor cells within the restricted environment of millipore chambers in actively immunized mice. MATERIALS AND METHODS White Swiss mice of both sexes (HA/ICR strain), 3-4 months old, were used in this study. The tumor cells used were Lettre strain, hyperdiploid Ehrlich ascites tumor originally obtained from Roswell Park Memorial Institute and grow

Energy self-sufficiency, grid demand variability and consumer costs: Integrating solar PV, Stirling engine CHP and battery storage

Global uptake of solar PV has risen significantly over the past four years, motivated by increased economic feasibility and the desire for electricity self-sufficiency. However, significant uptake of solar PV could cause grid balancing issues. A system comprising Stirling engine combined heat and power, solar PV and battery storage (SECHP-PV-battery) may further improve self-sufficiency, satisfying both heat and electricity demand as well as mitigating potential negative grid effects. This paper presents the results of a simulation of 30 households with different energy demand profiles using this system, in order to determine: the degree of household electricity self-sufficiency achieved; resultant grid demand profiles; and the consumer economic costs and benefits. The results indicate that, even though PV and SECHP collectively produced 30% more electricity than the average demand of 3300. kWh/yr, households still had to import 28% of their electricity demand from the grid with a 6. kWh battery. This work shows that SECHP is much more effective in increasing self-sufficiency than PV, with the households consuming on average 49% of electricity generated (not including battery contribution), compared to 28% for PV. The addition of a 6. kWh battery to PV and SECHP improves the grid demand profile by 28% in terms of grid demand ramp-up requirement and 40% for ramp-downs. However, the variability of the grid demand profile is still greater than for the conventional system comprising a standard gas boiler and electricity from the grid. These moderate improvements must be weighed against the consumer cost: with current incentives, the system is only financially beneficial for households with high electricity demand (<4300. kWh/yr). A capital grant of 24% of the installed cost of the whole micro-generation system is required to make the system financially viable for households with an average electricity demand (3300. kWh/yr)